The Delphi Method (also known as the Delphi Opinion Cycle) is a structured communication technique used for gathering expert opinions and achieving consensus through multiple rounds of surveys. Developed by the RAND Corporation in the 1950s, it is widely used in strategic foresight, policy analysis, and decision-making.
- Anonymity: Experts do not directly interact, reducing bias and groupthink.
- Iteration: Multiple rounds refine opinions toward a consensus.
- Controlled Feedback: Summarized responses help experts adjust their views.
- Expert Judgement: Relies on the knowledge of selected experts rather than raw data alone.
This survey supports the first round of opinion collection in the Delphi method, the open-ended questionnaire. The outcome can then be shared with the experts in two subsequent rounds, for refinement and consensus building, until a final consensus is reached. Read more about the method.
Read more in the The Futures Toolkit and this Article on Delphi by Foresight University.
About Delphi Opinion Cycle
Instructions for Participants:
- Reflect on your expertise, observations, and knowledge of the broader landscape.
- Consider trends and developments across various timeframes (short-term and long-term).
- Provide detailed responses where possible, and skip questions if they do not apply to your area of knowledge.
Your input is crucial for creating a robust understanding of emerging opportunities and risks. Thank you for sharing your perspective!
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